SSRN Author: Robert A. JarrowRobert A. Jarrow SSRN Content
http://www.ssrn.com/author=16130
http://www.ssrn.com/rss/en-usSat, 07 Oct 2017 03:09:04 GMTeditor@ssrn.com (Editor)Sat, 07 Oct 2017 03:09:04 GMTwebmaster@ssrn.com (WebMaster)SSRN RSS Generator 1.0New: Asset Price Bubbles and Risk ManagementThe purpose of this paper is to review the literature on asset price bubbles to study the impact that the existence of bubbles has on standard risk management methodologies. In the presence of asset price bubbles, a trader’s optimal portfolio holdings decrease and a financial institution’s optimal level of equity capital needs to be increased relative to a market without bubbles. Further, risk-neutral valuation for derivatives is often incorrect and the standard hedging techniques are suboptimal.
http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=3048283
http://www.ssrn.com/1631430.htmlFri, 06 Oct 2017 06:16:35 GMTNew: An Equilibrium Capital Asset Pricing Model in Markets with Trading Constraints and Price BubblesThis paper derives an equilibrium capital asset pricing model (CAPM) in a market with trading constraints and asset price bubbles. The asset price processes are general semimartingales including Markov jump-diffusion processes as special cases, and the trading constraints considered include short sale restrictions, borrowing constraints, and margin requirements, among others. We derive a generalized intertertemporal CAPM and consumption CAPM for these markets. The implications for empirical testing are that additional systematic risk factors will exist in a market with trading constraints and price bubbles as contrasted with an otherwise equivalent unconstrained market with no price bubbles.
http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=2983300
http://www.ssrn.com/1599366.htmlMon, 12 Jun 2017 07:58:21 GMTNew: An Equilibrium Capital Asset Pricing Model in Markets with Price Jumps and Price BubblesThis paper derives an equilibrium capital asset pricing model (CAPM) in a market where asset prices can exhibit price jumps and price bubbles. We derive a generalized intertertemporal CAPM and consumption CAPM for these markets. The derived risk return relation differs from the classical results only in the characterization of the state price density, which depends on the existence of price bubbles, and in the number and quantity of systematic risk factors.
http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=2983321
http://www.ssrn.com/1599335.htmlMon, 12 Jun 2017 07:55:44 GMTREVISION: On the Existence of Competitive Equilibrium in Frictionless and Incomplete Stochastic Asset MarketsUsing a standard frictionless, continuous time, and continuous trading stochastic economy with heterogeneous beliefs, the purpose of this paper is to provide sufficient conditions for the existence of competitive equilibrium in an incomplete asset market. A new approach to proving existence is provided, which is readily generalized to markets with frictions, including trading constraints and transaction costs. As a second contribution, this paper also proves the existence of bubble equilibrium in a market without trading constraints. We show that bubbles can exist solely due to heterogeneous beliefs about the evolution of an asset’s market price process.
http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=2688600
http://www.ssrn.com/1598849.htmlFri, 09 Jun 2017 16:56:45 GMTREVISION: Asset Market Equilibrium with Liquidity RiskThis paper derives an equilibrium asset pricing model with liquidity risk. Liquidity risk is modeled as a stochastic quantity impact on the price from trading, where the size of the impact depends on trade size. Under a mild set of assumptions, we prove that an equilibrium price process exists for our economy and we characterize the market’s state price density, which enables the derivation of the risk-return relation for the stock’s expected return including liquidity risk. In contrast to the traditional models without liquidity risk, there is an additional systematic liquidity risk factor which is related to the stock return’s covariation with the market’s stochastic liquidity cost. Traditional transaction costs are a special case of our formulation.
http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=2653914
http://www.ssrn.com/1597711.htmlTue, 06 Jun 2017 13:19:51 GMTREVISION: Volatility Uncertainty, Time Decay, and Option Bid-Ask Spreads in an Incomplete MarketThis paper documents the fact that in options markets, the (percentage) implied volatility bid-ask spread increases at an increasing rate as the option’s maturity date approaches. To explain this stylized fact, this paper provides a market microstructure model for the bid-ask spread in options markets. We first construct a static equilibrium model to illustrate the aforementioned phenomenon where risk averse and competitive option market makers quote bid and ask prices to minimize their inventory risk in an incomplete market with both directional and volatility risk. We extend this model to multi-periods and show that the same phenomenon occurs there as well. Two new implications are generated: a volatility level effect and a volatility variance effect. These implications are empirically tested, and the empirical results confirm the model’s validity. Finally, we document the importance of de-trending the maturity effect by showing that the de-trended percentage volatility spread ...
http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=2264261
http://www.ssrn.com/1596992.htmlSun, 04 Jun 2017 17:09:05 GMTREVISION: Volatility Uncertainty, Time Decay, and Option Bid-Ask Spreads in an Incomplete MarketThis paper documents the fact that in options markets, the (percentage) implied volatility bid-ask spread increases at an increasing rate as the option’s maturity date approaches. To explain this stylized fact, this paper provides a market microstructure model for the bid-ask spread in options markets. We first construct a static equilibrium model to illustrate the aforementioned phenomenon where risk averse and competitive option market makers quote bid and ask prices to minimize their inventory risk in an incomplete market with both directional and volatility risk. We extend this model to multi-periods and show that the same phenomenon occurs there as well. Two new implications are generated: a volatility level effect and a volatility variance effect. These implications are empirically tested, and the empirical results confirm the model’s validity. Finally, we document the importance of de-trending the maturity effect by showing that the de-trended percentage volatility spread ...
http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=2264261
http://www.ssrn.com/1576744.htmlFri, 24 Mar 2017 07:26:19 GMTNew: A Rational Asset Pricing Model for Premiums and Discounts on Closed-End Funds: The Bubble TheoryThis paper provides a new explanation for closed-end fund (CEF) discounts and premiums using the local martingale theory of asset price bubbles. This is a rational asset pricing model that is shown to be consistent with the existing empirical evidence on CEF discounts/premiums. Additional testable implications of the model are derived which await subsequent research for their resolution. This bubble theory also applies equally well to understanding discounts and premiums on exchange traded funds (ETFs).
http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=2935272
http://www.ssrn.com/1575520.htmlMon, 20 Mar 2017 08:20:21 GMTNew: The Distributional Effects of Yield Control Monetary Policy: A Helicopter Money Drop to Financial InstitutionsOn September 21st, 2016, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) embarked on a new unconventional monetary policy, yield curve control (YCC). This paper studies the consequences of this new and unconventional monetary policy tool. We characterize YCC in an arbitrage-free term structure model and show its economic implications. YCC has two effects. First, it creates an arbitrage opportunity in otherwise arbitrage-free government bond markets which financial institutions, but not individuals, can exploit. Second, this arbitrage opportunity creates a wealth transfer from the BOJ to these financial institutions, analogous to a helicopter money drop. Such a wealth transfer has negative distributional effects. Using recent market data, we estimate a lower bound on this wealth transfer from the BOJ to financial institutions for the first four months of its implementation to be between 0.048 - 2.37 billion US dollars per year, the midpoint being $1.209 billion.
http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=2922132
http://www.ssrn.com/1569074.htmlFri, 24 Feb 2017 08:08:38 GMTREVISION: On the Existence of Competitive Equilibrium in Frictionless and Incomplete Stochastic Asset MarketsUsing a standard frictionless, continuous time, and continuous trading stochastic economy with heterogeneous beliefs, the purpose of this paper is to provide sufficient conditions for the existence of competitive equilibrium in an incomplete asset market. A new approach to proving existence is provided, which is readily generalized to markets with frictions, including trading constraints and transaction costs. As a second contribution, this paper also proves the existence of bubble equilibrium in a market without trading constraints. We show that bubbles can exist solely due to heterogeneous beliefs about the evolution of an asset’s market price process.
http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=2688600
http://www.ssrn.com/1568897.htmlFri, 24 Feb 2017 00:19:18 GMTREVISION: On the Existence of Competitive Equilibrium in Frictionless and Incomplete Stochastic Asset MarketsUsing a standard frictionless, continuous time, and continuous trading stochastic economy with heterogeneous beliefs, the purpose of this paper is to provide sufficient conditions for the existence of competitive equilibrium in an incomplete asset market. A new approach to proving existence is provided, which is readily generalized to markets with frictions, including trading constraints and transaction costs. As a second contribution, this paper also proves the existence of bubble equilibrium in a market without trading constraints. We show that bubbles can exist solely due heterogeneous beliefs about the evolution of an asset’s market price process.
http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=2688600
http://www.ssrn.com/1561806.htmlSat, 28 Jan 2017 15:26:54 GMTREVISION: Asset Market Equilibrium with Liquidity RiskThis paper derives an equilibrium asset pricing model with liquidity risk. Liquidity risk is modeled as a stochastic quantity impact on the price from trading, where the size of the impact depends on trade size. Under a mild set of assumptions, we prove that an equilibrium price process exists for our economy and we characterize the market’s state price density, which enables the derivation of the risk-return relation for the stock’s expected return including liquidity risk. In contrast to the traditional models without liquidity risk, there is an additional systematic liquidity risk factor which is related to the stock return’s covariation with the market’s stochastic liquidity cost. Traditional transaction costs are a special case of our formulation.
http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=2653914
http://www.ssrn.com/1560663.htmlTue, 24 Jan 2017 17:33:46 GMT