Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels
41 Pages Posted: 25 Jul 2008
There are 2 versions of this paper
Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels
Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels
Date Written: July 2008
Abstract
We review evidence on the Great Moderation together with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level to develop a potential explanation for the decline in aggregate volatility since the 1980s and its consequences. The key elements are declines in firm-level volatility and aggregate volatility - most dramatically in the durable goods sector - but with no decline in household consumption volatility and individual earnings uncertainty. Our explanation for the aggregate volatility decline stresses improved supply-chain management, particularly in the durable goods sector, and, less important, a shift in production and employment from goods to services. We provide evidence that better inventory control made a substantial contribution to declines in firm-level and aggregate volatility. Consistent with this view, if we look past the turbulent 1970s and early 1980s, much of the moderation reflects a decline in high-frequency (short-term) fluctuations. While these developments represent efficiency gains, they do not imply (nor is there evidence for) a reduction in economic uncertainty faced by individuals and households.
Keywords: Great Moderation, inventories, monetary policy, volatility
JEL Classification: E20, E32
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?
By James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
-
Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed Since the Early 1980s?
-
Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy
-
Recent U.S. Macroeconomic Stability: Good Policies, Good Practices, or Good Luck?
By Shaghil Ahmed, Andrew T. Levin, ...
-
On the Causes of the Increased Stability of the U.S. Economy
By James A. Kahn, Margaret Mary Mcconnell, ...
-
The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences
By Diego Comin and Thomas Philippon
-
The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences
By Diego Comin and Thomas Philippon
-
The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences
By Diego A. Comin and Thomas Philippon
-
The Estimation of Prewar Gnp: Methodology and New Evidence
By Nathan S. Balke and Robert J. Gordon